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The world is on track for record-breaking temperatures over the next five years, raising serious concerns for climate-vulnerable countries like Bangladesh, according to a new report by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Released on Wednesday (28 May), the report highlights a growing risk of extreme climate events and long-term environmental impacts as global warming accelerates. The WMO warns that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 is likely to surpass 2024 — currently the hottest year on record.
The findings spell trouble for countries like Bangladesh, which is highly exposed to the adverse effects of climate change. Rising sea levels, unpredictable rainfall, prolonged droughts, and frequent extreme weather events could worsen in the coming years.
According to the WMO, there is a 70% probability that the five-year average temperature from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, there is an 80% chance that at least one year in this period will break previous temperature records.
The report notes that this warming trend is contributing to ocean heating, glacier and polar ice melting, sea-level rise, and intensification of extreme climate events such as heatwaves and torrential rains.
Experts have warned that low-lying nations like Bangladesh are already experiencing the damaging effects of climate change. If global temperatures continue to rise, the country could see greater coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources, reduced agricultural productivity, and displacement of communities from climate-induced disasters.
The WMO also forecasts that average rainfall in South Asia has increased in recent years, and this trend is likely to continue through 2029 — although variability between seasons is expected.
Additionally, the Arctic region is heating up far faster than the global average. Over the next five winters (November to March), Arctic temperatures are expected to rise 3.5 times faster, reaching around 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average. Sea ice in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas is expected to continue to decline.
“The past ten years have been the warmest in recorded history,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. “Unfortunately, this report offers no sign of relief in the years ahead. Our economies, lives, ecosystems, and the planet will face growing pressure.”
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit the rise in long-term global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to cap it at 1.5°C. Scientists have repeatedly warned that crossing the 1.5°C threshold could lead to far more severe climate impacts.
This year’s COP30 climate summit will be a critical moment for global climate action, where updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — national climate action plans — will be reviewed. These updates are vital for meeting the targets set under the Paris Agreement and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.
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